Investment Advice from the Pros

A few quotes from the book "The Best Investment Advice I Ever Received" compiled by Liz Claman.

"It is startling to know that a $23,000 investment at birth, invested at a 6 percent annual interest rate, would grow to $1,015,334.35 at age sixty-five. Time and compound interest are magic". From the foreword, by Paul O'Neill, former US Treasury Secretary

"Stay away from investments that you don't understand or that seem too good to be true. If an investment opportunity or a business has a strategy, a profit stream, or a financial structure that you can't figure out, or that doesn't seem sustainable, there is a very good chance you'll be disappointed over time". From Art Collins, Chairman and CEO, Medtronic, Inc.

"First, diversify your portfolio and minimize taxes and trading costs. Second, know your investment goals and choose your assets to achieve your goals. Third, invest regularly and avoid timing the market. Fourth, save as much as you can, and your investments will do better. Fifth, do not pick stocks unless you are following stocks regularly. Sixth, resist the temptation to sell stocks short". From John E. Core, Associate Professor of Accounting, Wharton School of Business

One can learn a lot from listening to the experts. Many years ago, I was a regular listener to the Bruce Williams radio show. I learned so many good lessons from that show that I still remember today. I don't even recall if he is still on the radio, but he has put out several books about business, money management and entrepreneurship. I also have learned a lot by reading magazines like Forbes and Kiplinger's. An international business class I had required all of us students to subscribe to the Wall Street Journal. In this day and age where it is hard to find a decent newspaper, the WSJ still is the ultimate source for Wall Street information. I guess I always had somewhat of an interest in business ever since my Dad talked about working as a stockbroker for Merrill Lynch in the 1960s. Back then, the company required all brokers to spend some time training on Wall Street. My interest in working in the television industry always surpassed my interest in business until the last couple of years.

The Perils of Credit Card Debt

Dave Ramsey wrote an article about credit card debt, and how the interest paid on these can be so high. In his example, the monthly interest payments added up to $306. The thing that people do not think about is the fact that money spent to cover that interest cannot be spent on anything else. Your debts hold you prisoner until they are paid off. If the $306 monthly was invested in a growth mutual fund over the period of 35 years, you would end up with $1,967,873! That is why Ramsey is so opposed to debt. It robs you of chances to build wealth. Money not spent to cover credit card debt, car payments, student loan payments, medical debts, and the like can be invested, securing your retirement nest egg. Plus, who says you need to retire at 65? Smart choices can move up that retirement date to 60 or 55, or even earlier, with the right decisions. Each Friday on Ramsey's radio show, he has people call and declare they are debt free. They tell him how much debt they had and how long it took them to pay it off. For the whole article on the credit card debt issue, check this out:

https://www.mytotalmoneymakeover.com/article/how-credit-card-debt-adds-up?ectid=bitlyified010420120952

Stocks to Hold on to Forever, and the Lessons of Toyota

A solid, dividend paying stock can be held for a long time, forever if you so desire. Super investor Warren Buffett has a portfolio that includes blue chip investments like Coca Cola, Exxon Mobil, Wal Mart, IBM and Intel. But, the stock market is unpredictable, and even a company that seems rock solid can have problems. Years ago, people saw GM and Chrysler as forever stocks, but they saw rough times and had to be bailed out. About five years ago I figured that Toyota (TM) would be a wise investment. The stock was over $100 per share, the balance sheet looked good, and it paid a decent dividend. Then came the recalls and the tarnished reputation of a company known for selling quality, worry-free vehicles. The company experienced supply chain challenges in the wake of Japan's typhoon. The stock is now at about $67 per share, about half the price at which I purchased it. But, Toyota has had ups and downs in the past, and I feel that things will turn around for the company. It is a good investment over the long term. Some would probably say that now is a time to buy, when it is low. It might be. Stock investing involves risk, and without a crystal ball, who knows what the future will hold. Buy low, sell high is the cardinal rule of investing, and if there is hope that a turnaround will happen, it's best to ride out the storm. Buy high, sell low would be a mistake. But, some may say if only a stop loss order was executed, the loss would not occur. I can see that argument, but on the other hand, a loss (or a gain) does not happen until a security is sold. The 52 week range for Toyota is between 60 and 93 dollars per share. So, at $68, it is closer to its bottom than its top. The dividend yield is still quite good, at 1.4%. But, this is down from its 5 year dividend average yield of 1.8%. Analysts on Yahoo finance rate it at a 2.7, which is neither a buy nor a sell recommendation. With the uncertainty in the European markets, things are unpredictable now for investors. When markets overseas hiccup, US markets do too. It's truly a global economy.

Individual Stocks: The Best Investment Over the Long Term

From the book “Stocks for the Long Run” by Jeremy J. Siegel---

Best performing S&P 500 firms, 1957-2006;

Altria (Philip Morris): return of 19%
Abbott Labs: return of 15%
Crane Co.: return of 15%
Merck: return of 15%
Bristol-Myers Squibb: return of 15%
PepsiCo: return of 15%
Tootsie Roll: return of 15%
Coca-Cola: return of 15%
Colgate-Palmolive: return of 14%
Others, all around 14% include; Heinz, Pfizer, Wrigley, P&G, Hershey, Kroger and CVS.

Short term, these may not move a lot, but holding them over the long haul can yield big results. These may not be the most "sexy" stocks, but long term they give great results. For these you need to take more of a buy and hold attitude, as embraced by Warren Buffett, as opposed to a buy and homework attitude, like Jim Cramer.

$1,000 in Philip Morris in 1957 would be worth $8.25 million in 2006. This is 50 times the accumulation in the S&P 500 index. The S&P is “safe” but you can make much more if you take risks. Individual stocks will pay more than index funds. I'd have some moral objections to investing in a company that makes cigarettes, but that is just my point of view.

Often times index funds, matching the return of the S&P 500 or the Wilshire 5000 will do better than mutual funds.

Historically, stocks have returned 6.8% after inflation over the last 200 years. The average P/E (price to earnings ratio, or multiple), is about 15. These returns will double the purchasing power of your portfolio every decade. With inflation at 2-3%, stock returns range between 9 and 10% per year. This doubles the value of your portfolio every 7 to 8 years.

It is a bull market if the economy is doing well, it's a bear market if the economy is struggling. Jim Cramer says: “Bulls make money, bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered.” In other words, you can make money if the market is going up or down, but do not get greedy.

Have cash as part of your portfolio, especially in a bear market. Buy stocks that pay dividends if you can (P&G pays a good dividend). It’s the dividends that make stocks outperform bonds. Stocks have yielded the best return over the long run. Bonds are less, gold is less than bonds. Precious metals prices will generally go in the inverse of the stock market. (Stock market low/metals high and vice versa).

Diversification means that no sector (a sector may be automotive stocks, or healthcare stocks, or bank stocks) is more than 20% of your portfolio. Don’t put all of your eggs in one basket. If one sector struggles, your whole portfolio will not go down the drain.

Estimating Your Retirement Nest Egg

Even if retirement is decades away, it is good to get an estimate of how much your nest egg will be worth. Time is the best friend of investing since saving for 40 years versus saving for 30 years can make a significant difference. One of the best retirement calculators I have found is located here:

http://www.dinkytown.net/java/Retire401k.html

Here is an example:

age:22
annual salary: $30,000
current 401k balance: $1,000
retirement age: 65
annual rate of return: 8%
expected annual salary increase: 3%
employer match: 50%
employer maximum for match: 6%

After 43 years of savings, your 401k would be worth $1,144,337!
If you wait 10 years and start investing at age 32, the amount would be $483,063.

Another great method for estimating is the "Rule of 72". This helps you to determine how long it will take for your money to double. If you make a return of 10% on your money, divide 72 by 10 and you get 7.2 years for your money to double. Let's say you have $10,000 invested at age 30 and you can get a 10% return on your money. It will double every 10 years, following this pattern:

age 30 $10,000
age 37.2 $20,000
age 44.4 $40,000
age 51.6 $80,000
age 58.8 $160,000
age 66 $320,000
age 73.2 $640,000

Clark Howard, Consumer Advocate

I have learned a lot from Dave Ramsey and Jim Cramer, as mentioned in my other posts. Another interesting person I have discovered is author, TV and radio host Clark Howard. He is the person to follow when it comes to personal finance. Recently I saw him on Anderson Cooper's show and he has lots of down to earth tips that can save a person a lot of money. One thing he said that is you go shoppng at a grocery store, the items to avoid buying are the non-food items such as health and beauty aids like toilet paper and toothpaste. He said that the stores have their largest markup on these items. It is a better bet to buy them at warehouse stores like Sam's Club, or even Wal Mart. He recommends buying a car online, rather than from a dealer. Buying a car is usually the second biggest purchase a person makes besides a home, so doing homework and researching different options makes sense.

Here is Clark's bio from his website:

Clark Howard is a nationally syndicated consumer expert who advises consumers how to save more, spend less and avoid getting ripped off. His radio show is heard every day on more than 200 radio stations throughout North America. His HLN show runs every Saturday and Sunday at 6am, noon and 4pm ET, and he is a frequent guest on many other talk, variety and news programs.

"Save more and spend less" is more than just a motto for Clark; it's a way of life. As a successful lifelong entrepreneur, media star and best-selling author, the Atlanta-based "consumer champion" is dedicated to helping Americans of all means get ahead in life.

Clark 's career included stints in both government and private sectors. He was a civilian employee working for the U.S. Air Force at the end of the Vietnam War. He launched a travel agency in 1981 that grew into a chain with locations across metro Atlanta. In 1987, he sold the company at 31 and retired.

Clark found his way into the public eye almost by accident. While enjoying life on the pristine beaches of Florida, he was asked to be a guest on a radio show about travel. The response was so positive that he was given his own program, The Clark Howard Show. The show originates from Atlanta's AM 750 and NOW 95.5 FM News/Talk WSB and is syndicated by Dial Global.

In early 2009, The Clark Howard Show was expanded to HLN (formerly the Headline News channel) in a weekend program. Viewers can watch the penny-pincher answer the best calls from his daily national radio show on Saturdays and Sundays at 6 a.m., noon and 4 p.m. ET. He also appears on HLN 16 times each day during the week with minute-long consumer tips.

He is also a TV reporter on Atlanta's ABC affiliate WSB-TV and writes a weekly column in The Atlanta Journal-Constituion that appears each Thursday in the Deal Spotter section.

The consumer champ's most recent book, 2011's Clark Howard's Living Large in Lean Times: 250+ Ways to Buy Smarter, Spend Smarter, and Save Money (due Aug. 2), covers everything from cell phones to student loans, coupon websites to mortgages, investing to saving on electric bills, and beyond.

Clark has published nine books in total -- with 2002's Get Clark Smart and 2003's Clark's Big Book of Bargains both charting on The New York Times' "Best Sellers" list (No. 6 and No. 7, respectively). Clark's books are available through GetClarkSmart.com.

As an Atlanta native, Clark has always been very involved in improving his community. He started several civic programs, including Atlanta Volunteer Action, Volunteer Action, Inc., The Big Buddy Program and Career Action. With the help of his listeners, he has built 43 homes over 16 years throughout metro Atlanta for Habitat for Humanity.

In 1993, he opened the Consumer Action Center as an extension of his radio show to provide free off-air advice on consumer issues. The CAC is now staffed by more than 140 volunteers.

He's also a member of the Georgia State Defense Force. Clark joined after the terrorist attacks of 2001 to do his part in helping to prepare and assist our military. He attends monthly training workshops around the state as part of his service, and has performed medical evacuation work in New Orleans following Hurricane Katrina.

Check out his website here:

http://www.clarkhoward.com/

Jim Cramer's Buy and Homework Strategy

CNBC stock market guru Jim Cramer is not a proponent of buy and hold. His strategy involves buy and homework. This method involves buying a stock and then doing your homework to track your investment, to determine when to sell it, buy more, or hold on to it. Homework involves many tactics which include following news stories about the stock, looking at analyst's recommendations, looking at the balance sheet and cash flow statement, listening to conference calls, keeping an eye on competitors, monitoring any changes in management, and seeing if management is buying or selling the stock, and other tasks. Homework takes some time, and Cramer recommends that those who cannot do the homework, should invest in something diversified, like a mutual fund. He recommends taking one hour per week for each stock owned. Mutual funds can be great, but they cannot offer the returns of individual stocks. So, one must determine their tolerance for risk (losing money). Younger investors can afford to take more chances than older investors, since money lost can be gained back over time. If you are in your 20s, take risks. If you are in your 60s, take risks at your own peril. Jim Cramer says to use limit orders, not market orders. That way you lock in a specific buying point for your investment. With a market order, the stock can be bought by the broker at any time during the market day. You might want to buy a stock at 18 and sell it when it goes to 24. A stop loss order can lock in a price where the stock will be sold if it goes too low. You might buy something at 10 and have a stop loss at 8. The only issue with this is, you may miss out on the gain if a stock goes down, then back up. What is you have a stop loss at 8 and then it goes to 12? You have missed out on the gain.

An important formula that Jim Cramer discusses in his books is E x M = P, where E is earning per share, M is the multiple, or price to earnings ratio, and P is the price per share. He talks about evaluating investments based on multiple contraction or expansion. If you know the multiple will go up or down, you can predict the fluctuation in price. His book, Jim Cramer's Real Money talks about rotating investments through different sectors based on anticipating the contraction or expansion of the multiple.

If you want to see the investments in Jim Cramer's charitable trust portfolio, check it out here:

http://www.jim-cramer-charitable-trust-stocks.com/

There are some large cap, blue chip stocks here such as American Express and Coca Cola, which are also owned by investing maven Warren Buffett. The buy and hold tactic is practiced by Buffett, and he has done OK for himself. He recommends buying stocks which pay a good dividend, such as Procter and Gamble, Kraft and Johnson and Johnson. View his portfolio here:

http://warren-buffett-portfolio.com/


The dividend component of stocks can add up to a significant amount of money over time. Especially in tough economic times like we have right now, many play it safe investment wise, turning to dividend paying stocks. Cramer is knowledgeable, but just like with any investment advice, take it with a grain of salt. He is not perfect. Any investor who is perfect is probably that way due to using inside information. I like him since he takes a subject that could be boring (stock picking) and he makes it interesting.